We’re now at 10 days until football. 17 until Big 12 teams kick off. All win totals are via Westgate LV Sportsbook. If you don’t know how over/unders work, read a book you uncultured peasant. The sportsbook basically sets a regular season win total and you bet on whether they will have more or less wins. Ties are a wash. Lets get it.
West Virginia – O/U 5 Wins
- 8/31 James Madison
- 9/7 at Missouri
- 9/14 NC State
- 9/21 at Kansas
- 10/5 Texas
- 10/12 Iowa State
- 10/19 at Oklahoma
- 10/31 at Baylor
- 11/9 Texas Tech
- 11/16 at Kansas State
- 11/23 Oklahoma State
- 11/29 at TCU
WVU has a brutal schedule to say the least. 11 P5 opponents and one of the best FCS schools in the nation. Assuming they win against JMU, @ Kansas and lose @ Oklahoma, to hit the over they basically need to go 4-5 against teams that are similar if not better on paper. Thats tough. To hit the under they need to go 2-7 though. That seems much less likely with almost every game being winnable. Win total will likely be about 5, but if I had to pick one, it would be over. Getting an upset against Texas/Iowa State at home would lock it up.
Bottom Line: Won’t be under, probably won’t be over. 5 seems about right. Don’t give your bookie a 4 month loan.
Pick: Over 5
Kansas – 3 Wins
- 8/31 Indiana State
- 9/7 Coastal Carolina
- 9/13 @ BC
- 9/21 WVU
- 9/28 @ TCU
- 10/5 Oklahoma
- 10/19 @ Texas
- 10/26 TTU
- 11/2 KSU
- 11/16 @ OKST
- 11/23 @ ISU
- 11/30 Baylor
Kansas could easily trot into week 3 with a 2-0 record. They don’t have Pooka week 1 and Coastal Carolina isn’t exactly a lock, but lets say it is. Is there 2 more wins on the schedule? KSU at home could be one. Maybe they can get Baylor or WVU on an off week in Kansas. But realistically, they can’t throw the ball. Outside of Pooka they don’t have any gamechanging offensive playmakers and tackle machine Joe Dineen Jr. is gone. It seems more likely that they drop a game in weeks 1-2 than getting 2 wins in conference play. Les Miles is recruiting very well, but the talent isn’t there quite yet. Not this year.
Bottom Line: Winning in the Big 12 is tough when you can’t consistently air the ball out. Could get 1, but its very unlikely they can get 2 P5 wins this season.
Pick Under 3
Oklahoma – 10.5
- 9/1 Houston
- 9/7 South Dakota coyotes
- 9/14 @ UCLA
- 9/28 Texas Tech
- 10/5 @ Kansas
- 10/12 @ Texas
- 10/19 West Virginia
- 10/26 @ Kansas State
- 11/9 Iowa State
- 11/16 Baylor
- 11/23 TCU
- 11/30 @ Oklahoma State
Dropping 2 games this season would be very surprising. The Non-Con looks like one of the spaces in candy land. Getting Iowa State, who projects to e the top candidate for a Texas/Oklahoma repeat, at home is huge. Unless a team emerges or the Sooners are hit with a major upset, this should be a lock. Outside of Texas I don’t really see any losses on the schedule. The O-Line is super young, but they return 2 All-Conference RBs, one of the best WRs in the nation, the winningest QB in CFB, and a defense that can’t be worse than last season.
Bottom Line: Bet the house on this one. The Sooners will be 11-1 entering the Big 12 championship.
The Pick – Over 10.5
TCU – 7.5
- 8/31 Arkansas Pine Bluff
- 9/14 @ Purdue
- 9/21 SMU
- 9/28 Kansas
- 10/5 @ Iowa State
- 10/17 @ K-State
- 10/26 Texas
- 11/2 @ OKST
- 11/9 Baylor
- 11/16 @ Texas Tech
- 11/23 @ Oklahoma
- 11/29 WVU
Alright first off what the hell is Arkansas Pine Bluff. You can’t tell me that is actually a real school with real students and real professors. 0.0% chance. Anyways, TCU should hit this over easy. Aside from an embarrassing loss to Kansas and a close one against TTU, they actually had a solid season in 2018 considering they had about half of their team injured. Their defense is always top 3 in the conference, they just need someone to step up at QB. Lets assume they win against AK-PB, SMU, Kansas, @KST, and WVU. Oklahoma on the road will be nearly impossible, but going 3-3 in a slate that includes Purdue, ISU, OKST, Baylor at home, TTU, and Texas at home seems like a safe bet. This could easily be a 9-10 win team if their offense doesn’t look like a C-Division intramural team where everyone shows up drunk.
Bottom Line: Easy Non-Con games and a really good defense point to 8+ wins in 2019 if they can have any semblance of an offense. An elite WR and solid RBs/O-Line point to that being the case.
The Pick: Over 7.5
Texas – 9.5 Wins
- Aug. 31 Louisiana Tech
- Sept. 7 LSU
- Sept. 14 @ Rice
- Sept. 21 OKST
- Oct. 5 @ West Virginia
- Oct. 12 Oklahoma
- Oct. 19 Kansas
- Oct. 26 at TCU
- Nov. 9 KSU
- Nov. 16 @Iowa State
- Nov. 23 @Baylor
- Nov. 29 TTU
The 9.5 line basically comes down to whether or not Texas can get a win over either LSU or Oklahoma. If they drop both it will be almost impossible to go 10-0 the rest of the way. They will lost at least one game @ Iowa State, @ WVU, @ TCU, or @ Baylor. Sam Ehlingher seems invincible, but what if he gets hurt? They have no proven talent behind him with Buechele gone. This potential 10+ win team turns into a 7-8 win team. Factor in the fact that they struggled to run the ball last season and return only 3 defensive starters, this is a tough sell.
Bottom Line: Super talented team that with a brutal set of away games and an elite Non-Con in LSU.
Pick: Under 9.5
Kansas State – 5.5 Wins
- 8/31 Nicholls
- 9/7 Bowling Green
- 9/14 @ Mississippi State
- 9/28 @ Oklahoma State
- 10/5 Baylor
- 10/17 TCU
- 10/26 Oklahoma
- 11/2 @ Kansas
- 11/9 @ Texas
- 11/16 WVU
- 11/23 @ TTU
- 11/30 Iowa State
KSU has 3 likely wins in Nicholls, Bowling Green, and Kansas, but can they find 3 more? Losing Alex Barnes (1355 Yards, 12 TDs) and Isaiah Zuber (619 Yards, 5 TDs) are going to hurt an offense that already struggled last season. On the other side, their defense should be one of the better in the conference and QB Skylar Thompson is more than capable of taking them to a bowl game. Home games WVU, TCU, and Baylor seem to be the most likely wins. They’ll need at least 2 of those.
Bottom Line: I’m not touching this team. Splitting hairs on 5-6 wins has no appeal to me. Nope.
Pick: Under 5.5
Texas Tech – 6.5 Wins
- 8/31 Montana State
- 9/7 UTEP
- 9/14 @ Arizona
- 9/28 @ Oklahoma
- 10/5 Oklahoma State
- 10/12 @ Baylor
- 10/19 Iowa State
- 10/26 @ Kansas
- 11/9 @ WVU
- 11/16 TCU
- 11/23 Kansas State
- 11/29 @ Texas
Lets break this down. Montana State, UTEP, Kansas State, and @ Kansas are wins. @ Oklahoma and @ Texas are losses. Can they go 3-3 in the remaining 6 games? Bowman missed significant time, but even with Kingsbury they went 5-7 last season dropping their last 5. Their defense was abysmal and Dakota Allen is now gone. This seems like a 6-6 team to me. Had the line be 6, I may lean towards over but 7 wins just seems like too many due to all of the question marks.
Bottom Line: TTU is a program on the rise, but 7 wins seems to be too many for 2019.
Pick: Under 6.5
Oklahoma State – 6.5 Wins
- 8/30 @ Oregon State
- 9/7 McNeese
- 9/14 @ Tulsa
- 9/21 @ Texas
- 9/28 Kansas State
- 10/5 @ Texas Tech
- 10/19 Baylor
- 10/26 @ Iowa State
- 11/2 TCU
- 11/16 Kansas
- 11/23 @ WVU
- 11/30 Oklahoma
I am sold on Oklahoma State this season. 4 Returning O-Lineman, A Top 3 Receiver in College Football, and two legit options at QB. From what I’ve seen, Spencer Saunders has the potential to be an elite college QB. Defense is a major question mark. They only return 5 starters on a team that allowed 400 points a game. 4 of which are DBs. That is obviously a big problem, but with 3 cupcake Non-Cons and Kansas State/Kansas at home, they’ll basically need to go 2-5 in conference play. That should be a cakewalk for this offense. Expect OKST to finish 8-4 at worst.
Bottom Line: OKST should compete for a Big 12 championship appearance this season. Destroy the over here.
Pick: Over 6.5
Baylor – 7.5 Wins
- 8/31 Stephen F. Austin
- 9/7 USTA
- 9/21 @ Rice
- 9/28 Iowa State
- 10/5 @ Kansas State
- 10/12 Texas Tech
- 10/19 @ Oklahoma State
- 10/31 West Virginia
- 11/9 @ TCU
- 11/16 Oklahoma
- 11/23 Texas
- 11/30 @ Kansas
Baylor’s athletic director needs to be fired. Stephen F. Austin, USTA, and Rice are the best you can come up with? Snooze fest. Whether or not their offense takes the next step will rely on a defensive line that allowed sacks seemingly every play last season. Charlie Brewer returns looking to be one of the better QBs in the country and The receiving core is among the best in the conference. They have an experienced defense that should improve a bit from last season. Baylor may not be a contender this season, but going 5-4 in Big 12 play should be a relatively easy feat.
Bottom Line: Baylor won 7 games last season and looks improved in seemingly every position corps. Should be a 8-9 win season for the bears given their non-conference schedule.
Pick: Over 7.5
Iowa State – 8 Wins
- 8/31 Northern Iowa
- 9/14 Iowa
- 9/21 Louisiana Monroe
- 9/28 @ Baylor
- 10/5 TCU
- 10/12 @ WVU
- 10/19 @ TTU
- 10/26 Oklahoma State
- 11/9 @ Oklahoma
- 11/16 Texas
- 11/23 Kansas
- 11/30 @ Kansas State
According to ESPN FPI, Iowa State is the favorite in every game except @ Baylor (43.9%) and @ Oklahoma (17.4%). Headlined by the best defense in the conference, they also return all 5 starters on the O-Line and rising Sophomore Brock Purdy. Losing elite playmakers in Hakeem Butler and David Montgomery is a big blow for ISU. If their offense can compete with the 30-40 PPG the Big 12 seems to put up every game, they could be a 9-10 win team.
Bottom Line: No chance ISU loses 5 games. Over is a lock here.
Pick: Over 8
