Every sportsbook seems to agree that Tua/Lawrence are the relatively heavy favorites. After that, 3-10 is different on almost every site. If, at equal odds, I had to pick a winner right now it would be Tua. He probably should have won it last season. +260 is just nowhere good enough value to take him preseason. Too much can happen over the course of 14 weeks. That being said, here are some higher upside picks.
Love: Ehlingher +1500
Does his team have 10 win potential? Yes. Does he play in the most stat-inflated league in CFB? Yes. Does he make an impact as a runner? Yes (16 TDs). Ehlingher should easily be the No. 3 most likely candidate. +1500 is absurd value. He doesn’t have the arm talent that some of the other guys on this list have, but he doesn’t need to. As long as he continues to limit turnovers he will be in the running all season. The fact that he plays for the most valuable football team in the country won’t hurt either.
Hate: Jake Fromm +900
I like Fromm a lot. He could easily be the most efficient QB in the country next year and a Top 10 pick in the draft. He won’t win the heisman though. Two reasons. A: Georgia lost their top 5 leaders in receiving yards. Their top returning WR only had 138 yards. They have like 10 blue chip guys taking those open spots, but that lack of experience is going to make Fromm’s margin of error smaller. B: Fromm had -27 rushing yards and 0 TDs last season. The last QB to win heisman that didn’t make an impact as a runner was Bradford who still had 47 yards and 5 TDs. Stay away from Fromm at +900. The Heisman is basically a stat competition and he may win games, but he doesn’t put up numbers. I wouldn’t take him at +3000.
Love: Jonathon Taylor +2500
If you’re not a QB or Alabama RB, this is a tough award to win. Last one was Reggie Bush in 2005. Taylor has been the best RB in college football the past 2 seasons and will hopefully get some looks in 2019. Dude has put up 4171 Yards and 29 TDs on a 6.9 AVG/Car. Those are some absurd numbers. Betting on Taylor at +2500 will basically be betting on Wisconsin to win 9-10 games and no QB to have a Lamar Jackson like season. I’ll take that at 25/1 Odds.
Hate: Justin Herbert +2000
Herbert has an NFL arm and is very athletic for his size, but he doesn’t fit the mold of a heisman winner. Isn’t super accurate (59.6 COMP %) and relatively turnover prone (8 INTs) considering its the PAC 12. He can do a bit as a runner, but won’t put up anything compared to likely finalists. Unless Oregon can go like 11-1 with a Playoff Berth, he realistically won’t even have a chance.
Love: Jalen Hurts +1000
Oklahoma has won the heisman the past two seasons. Hurts comes in to a pass-happy conference as a 3 time natty participant and 1 time champion. We know him as a game-manager, but he will likely get some more freedom outside of Bama’s system. Snag him at 10/1 odds.
Mega Sleepers if you can get 100:1 Odds
Spencer Saunder QB Oklahoma State:
Really mobile guy with a cannon. Plays in the Big 12. Returns All-American WR Tylan Wallace and 4/5 O-Lineman. Has somewhat of a similar situation to Kyler Murray last year.
K.J. Costello QB Stanford:
Costello has more of an NFL build than College, but his arm could get him in the discussion. Will likely be a Top 10 QB next season and deserves flier. Could get some serious looks if Stanford wins the Pac 12.
