When it comes to the NCAA Tournament, there are just a few amount of teams that overachieve. A couple of schools that come to mind are the Michigan and Syracuse. When they are not rated that highly, that is when they are at their most dangerous. And then there are others that slightly underachieve when they are rated rather highly. Teams like Kansas, Michigan State, etc. They tend to do well, but don’t always pan out in the tournament.
There are a number of teams that have a lot of strengths that they can rely on against other teams, but also some flaws. Today, we go through the top teams strengths and weaknesses. Some of the team’s flaws may get them bounced earlier than some people expect.
Duke:
Strength:
This is one a bit obvious as the amount of talent that they have and with players emerging and stepping up makes them even more dangerous. The Blue Devils ranks in the Top 10 in Scoring Offense and ranks in the Top 20 in Field Goal Defense. They are also number 1 in blocked shots per game as they average 7 a contest.
The more obvious talents are Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett. But PG Tre Jones put up 18 points in the ACC Title game and has improved his game mightily down the stretch. Cam Reddish is a rebounding machines, but is very inconsistent from the field, so that’ll be a question.
Weakness:
With a team this stacked, you would think there isn’t really a flaw. That is not the case as Duke actually has a really huge flaw and it could prevent them from going as far as people expect. Duke is 333rd in Three Point Percentage.
They average an abysmal 30% from 3 point range and don’t really have a true 3 point threat. It was Jack White, but then White went on a massive cold streak. He has recovered, but has not been the same player.
Duke has been able to win a ton of games with RJ or Zion driving, but if that gets clogged up, The Blue Devils could be put on upset alert against a very good 3 point shooting team.
Virginia:
Strength:
It is not a flaw that Virginia is #1 in Scoring Defense. They have been near the top of the rankings in team defense for quite some time and they have been dominant once again this season. They only give up 54 PPG and held NIT Bound North Carolina State to just 24 points for the entire game.
Virginia has only given up more than 70 twice and both of those were to Duke. There other loss was to Florida State in the Semi-Finals where they gave up 69 points. That defense is stifling and I don’t expect many teams to get near 65 with what they have on that side of the ball.
Weakness:
Virginia has a ton of strengths, whether its #3 in 3 Point Shooting or #1 in Fewest Turnovers. Something that UVA doesn’t do great is Outrebounding other teams. They are outside of the Top 100 in Rebound Margin. That’s not great. It’s not bad either and it’s not a glaring weakness, like Duke’s.
Virginia’s season won’t end like it did last year and they will go deep into the tournament. The reason why is because of how many strengths they have and what they rely on.
North Carolina:
Strength:
North Carolina has potent on offense as they average 86 PPG (good for 3rd in the nation). And what they can do with a below average paint, you’ve seen when they blew out Duke in Cameron Indoor not too long ago.
They’ve got a 3 headed monster in Cameron Johnson, Coby White, and Luke Maye (all averaging over 14 PPG). Those 3 alone can take you out of any game that you are in.
North Carolina is also an elite rebounding team as they rank 2nd in defensive rebounding and Luke Maye has been one of the best in the nation at doing it. North Carolina is also really good at distributing the ball as they average nearly 20 assists. Good for 2nd in the nation.
Weakness:
A weakness the Tar Heels have is Personal Fouls. They rank outside the Top 100 in fouling and when facing the right opponent, it can go against them.
Whether it’s against good free throw shooting teams like a LSU or Tennessee, it could backfire if teams can capitalize and force more fouls than the Tar Heels would like.
Gonzaga:
Strength:
Similar to North Carolina, Gonzaga has an elite offense as they rank #1 in the nation in scoring offense with nearly 89 PPG. One thing that has been a weakness for Gonzaga is their conference slate with the only other WCC team making the tournament is St. Mary’s.
Gonzaga does have the best non-conference win in a neutral site game against Duke. There other two games over Top 25 teams were losses to Tennessee and North Carolina.
Gonzaga also is in the top 20 in rebounding margin as both Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clark each average over 6.5 rebounds per game. With that lethal combo of rebounding and points, it’s hard to stop them offensively.
Weakness:
This isn’t necessarily a statistical weakness, but from a schematics standpoint, other teams can use this to their advantage. Gonzaga’s starting 5 is really small as they don’t have anyone above 6’9. Killian Tillie is their only real big that gets quite a few minutes and he averages just 6 PPG.
Gonzaga has talent at a lot of positions, but the height disadvantage might be problematic. Teams like Baylor (who ranks in the top 20 in blocks) and Florida State (6-10 Mfiondu Kabengele and 7-4 Christ Koumadje) could be a matchup issue. Especially Florida State.
Gonzaga is considered to be the first #1 seed to get upset by many and there is reason why. But Gonzaga also has a legitimate chance of running to the Final 4.
Michigan State:
Strength:
Michigan State is flawed by many due to the injuries that have plagued the team with Josh Langford and Matt McQuaid being out. Even without having a tall, big on the floor, Michigan State is still an elite blocking team as they are right behind Duke and Gonzaga for the #4 spot in the nation (5.6 BPG).
They also rank in the top 20 in Overall Field Goal Percentage and are a really good 3 point shooting team at 38%. That number is good for 29th in the country.
Weakness:
Similar to Gonzaga, Michigan State doesn’t have a tall threat down low, but still finds ways to block shots at a ridiculous rate. Michigan State is not a terrible 3 point defending team, but can be suspect at times as they do give up 32.5% from beyond the arc, but not a bad number.
The biggest flaw the Spartans have is turning the ball over as they do it on average 13 times per game. That is roughly in the middle of the pack when it comes to NCAA teams and is right in front of Duke.
But when playing against a team like Duke that is #1 in blocks and #4 in steals, that has got to be cleaned up or else Duke will make quick work and pounce on every opportunity they have of getting the ball back.
Kentucky:
Strength:
Their strength of schedule has them prepared for this slate as Kentucky played the 7th toughest schedule this season. There is nothing that Kentucky is elite at. But there is a lot of really good things that Kentucky does. They’re ranked in the Top 40 in Field Goal Percentage, Top 10 in Free Throws Made, and in the Top 15 in Blocked Shots
Kentucky has a senior leader that has been through all kinds of adversity when he decided to transfer from Stanford. And that would be Reid Travis. The Pair of him and PJ Washington has been able to do some damage as they combine to average nearly 26 PPG and 13 RPG.
Weakness:
This could be a weakness for Duke as well, but Kentucky’s main weakness is their youth. They have 5 freshman that play quality minutes and only one upperclassmen that plays much of any and that is Reid Travis.
When facing Mid-Major schools that are full of upperclassmen or other teams with more experience, it could be a serious issue. And this isn’t the first example, but this might be Calipari’s youngest team he has had.
Kentucky is also 204th in 3 Point Defense as they do not defend the 3 point well. They give up nearly 35% of 3’s that are taken. And if UK has to play Wofford in the 2nd round. Good luck, because the Terriers shoot a ridiculous 42% from 3 as a team (2nd in the nation.)
