Big 12 Championship Preview and Prediction
Matchup: #3 Kansas vs. #5 Iowa State
Location: Sprint Center. Kansas City, MO.
Date & Time: March, 16th. 6 PM EST. ESPN.
All-Time Series: Kansas Leads, 182-65.
In the previous 5 years, the Big 12 Tournament Title has been determined through 2 teams. This year it’ll be a 6th as both Iowa State and Kansas were able to clinch their spot in the 2019 Big 12 Championship game. Both were clinched in somewhat similar ways, but in others, quite the opposite as the #5 and #3 seed will be facing off.
Iowa State was featured in a grueling defensive battle with Kansas State as neither team shot over 42% from the field and was extremely close down the stretch. Marial Shayok connected on two huge three’s to put the Cyclones up late and they were able to contain the Wildcats enough to hold onto a 63-59 win. Shayok led the way for ISU with 21 Points on 5-12 shooting. F Matt Jacobson also had a very good game with just 8 points, but pulling down 16 rebounds.
For Kansas, it was a nervous first 16-17 minutes as West Virginia was pushing them around throughout most of it and built up a near double digit lead on the Jayhawks, in basically what was a home game for KU. Kansas would start pulling away down the stretch as Dedric Lawson had a very productive 24 points and 8 rebounds on 9-13 shooting. Even though KU had quite a few turnovers, they were able to shoot and outrebound the Mountaineers by quite a bit.
Key to a win for Kansas:
This isn’t a glaring weakness, but it is something to look into. Iowa State doesn’t play with much of a bench as they usually use most times 7 players, but sometimes 8. Marial Shayok played all 40 minutes of the K-State and most of the starters are fatigued. While KU was able to rest quite a few of their players down the stretch and had a much more manageable lead.
Iowa State also plays with a pretty small lineup as they only use 2 forwards and one of those only played 10 minutes in the K-State game. Something KU has is height with David McCormick, Mitch Lightfoot coming off the bench, and Dedric Lawson. ISU might have to rely on shooting 3’s and they were just 27% in their last game. Using their length and forcing ISU to chunk up 3’s will be the key to a win.
Keys to a win for Iowa State:
Even though Iowa State coughed it up quite a bit, so did Kansas in their Semi-Final game. The Jayhawks had 16 turnovers and didn’t shot extremely well from 3 either. Kansas may end up outrebounding Iowa State and may force more turnovers. But the key to Iowa State is running the floor and scoring on fast break opportunities.
Whether that be off turnovers or just off a missed basket, Iowa State is going to have to play harder, faster, and smarter than Kansas in order to win this game. Iowa State did tie the season series, and did play the Jayhawks very close in Lawrence. But the way KU shut down an up and coming West Virginia was not hard to be impressed by. The same West Virginia team that beat the Big 12 regular season Co-Champions.
Final Verdict:
Both teams come in with a chance to improve on their NCAA Tournament resume and to continue a legacy of winning tournament championships. Due to the length and not near enough fatigue, I think Kansas will be able to make up for not winning the regular season title by defeating the Cyclones in the finals. Kansas 75, Iowa State 70.