Matchup: #8 UCF vs. #11 LSU
Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ.
Date and Time: January, 1st. 1 PM EST.
All Time Series: First Meeting
Background Information:
One of the biggest stories in all of College Football the past 2 years is once again in the spotlight. Even with Scott Frost leaving for Nebraska during the off-season, UCF would go out and hire former OU offensive coordinator and Mizzou offensive coordinator, Josh Heupel. McKenzie Milton is the biggest loss out of either team from an importance standpoint. Milton’s knee was destroyed in the South Florida game and UCF has been led by Freshman, Darriel Mack Jr. Mack Jr was able to lead UCF to victory over USF as well as beating down Memphis. The argument is there that this UCF is actually better this season then last. Offensively, they are just as explosive as last year, ranking in the Top 5 in Offense. However, they are a Top 25 defense with talents like Mike Hughes and Shaquiem Griffin gone to the NFL.
For LSU, it seems to be an every year result for the Tigers as they finish with 8 or 9 wins as they have every year since 2013. There was a lot of hope in 2016 when Ed Oregeron took over for Les Miles that LSU would take that step back to the top of College Football. But back to back 9 win seasons have kept LSU good, but not quite elite. LSU will also have a few guys sitting out for this game preparing for the NFL Draft. Headlined by potential first round draft pick and All-American Linebacker, Devin White. Can UCF pull off back to back seasons of upsets or will LSU reign supreme and get the SEC back on track.
Players to watch for:
UCF:
With no Milton, UCF’s big hitter will be coming out of the backfield in the form of RB Greg McCrae. McCrae has exploded in 2018 after having a limited role his Freshman season. McCrae has 1,101 Yards and 9 Rushing Touchdowns to go along with 114 receiving yards and another touchdown.
Last year, UCF had lockdown corner and special teams star, Mike Hughes. This year to replace him is tackling machine and ball hawk, CB Richie Grant. Similar to McCrae, Grant had a limited role in 2017 as a Freshman, but has made his name in 2018. Grant has 101 tackles (3 for loss) and a AAC leading 6 interceptions to go along with a couple forced fumbles. Grant is an NFL talent that more than likely will declare early in 2019 if he continues to perform like he did this season. He could also be a huge factor in stopping Joe Burrow through the air and being a problem.
LSU:
RB Nick Brossette has put together a solid senior season after having to sit behind Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice. Brossette finished 2nd in rushing touchdowns in the SEC and nearly hit 1,000 yards. LSU is known for inconsistent QB play, especially in big games. So it is important to get the ground game going for both sides.
LSU doesn’t rush the passer terribly well, but when they do, it’s with S Grant Delphit. The Sophomore did a little bit of everything with 73 tackles (3rd on the team), 5 sacks (led the team), and 5 Interceptions (#1 in the SEC). His ability to make plays all over the field even in the backfield) reminds me a bit of another Safety from LSU in the Honey badger, Tyrann Mathieu. The only exception is Delphit isn’t used on special teams, the way Mathieu was. Establishing the running game and having your best player come up with big plays will be the deciding factor in this contest.
Keys to a win:
UCF:
With those defensive studs from LSU not playing in this game, it gives the Black Knights an opportunity. Especially running the football to keep the pressure off of Darriel Mack Jr. LSU is going to bring a bunch of different blitz packages, so UCF’s offensive line and how well they hold up is going to be a big thing to watch out for in this matchup.
LSU:
What UCF doesn’t want to happen is what LSU wants to happen. UCF is much improved on defense and with how LSU plays schematically, I don’t expect this to be a high scoring game. So getting pressure on Mack and forcing UCF to play behind the sticks will be huge. UCF is one of the best teams in the nation in 3rd down conversions (ranking 4th in NCAA). Giving them easier 3rd down chances is how UCF puts up some big yards and embarrasses another SEC team. Playing aggressive and creating havoc in the backfield is how LSU quiets all the UCF fans.
Final Verdict:
This should be a back and forth contest with some amazing offensive plays, but for the most part, a defensive contest. UCF was able to create some magic a year ago near their home, but in 2018, its the SEC that wins the matchup against the Black Knights. LSU 27, UCF 21.
