Matchup: Baylor vs. Vanderbilt
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX.
Date and Time: December, 27th. 9 PM EST.
All Time Series: Baylor Leads 2-0 (Previous Meeting: 1954, #10 Baylor 25, Vanderbilt 19).
Background Information:
After a 1-11 season campaign a year ago, Matt Rhule has this Baylor team playing in a bowl game for the 7th time in the past 8 years. Baylor defeated Texas Tech 35-24 in Arlington to get the 6th win. After a poor start with some tough competition, Vanderbilt was able to win 3 of their final 4 games against the bottom half of the SEC to become bowl eligible. It’s Derek Mason’s second bowl game with the Commodores in the 5 years he’s been head coach. A couple days ago, Matt Rhule announced that WR Jalen Hurd would be out for the bowl game due to a leg injury that required surgery. First Team All-Big 12 P Drew Galitz will also be out for the Bears as he Tore his ACL in the final game of the regular season. The only notable for Vanderbilt that is uncertain for the game is Senior LB Charles Wright. Up and coming QB Sophomore Charlie Brewer had a successful 2018 after ending 2017 with promise at the position for the future. He ended with almost 3,000 total yards, 23 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. On the other sideline will be Senior Kyle Shurmur after putting up pretty similar stats from a year ago. He finished with 2,844 yards, 23 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions.
Players to watch out for:
Baylor:
With the injury to Hurd, a lot will be on the plate for other WR Denzel Mims. Mims had a 1,000 yard season in 2017, but the addition of Hurd in the offseason, his production went down in 2018, but still respectable numbers. Mims has 700 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns so far. Outside of Mims, Baylor has other playmakers like Senior Chris Platt and Freshman Tyquan Thornton, but are inconsistent with their playmaking ability. With identical height and weight on the opposing side is All-SEC CB Joejuan Williams, this should be a great matchup to watch. Both are 6’3 and both are 208 pounds. Mims will be a guy Vanderbilt has to keep an eye on, if not he can be vertical threat as well as a red zone threat as 6 of his 8 touchdowns from 2017 were 40 yards or more. Defensively, DE BJ Thompson is an impact player when he is on the field. He only has 14 tackles on the season, but has made the most of those with 5 TFL’s and 4 sacks. Thompson is a straight up freak athlete with his 6’5 220 frame and has also blocked 3 kicks this year.
Vanderbilt:
This all depends on his health but if RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn is 100% for the game, he should be a problem for the Baylor defense. Baylor is led up front by James Lynch (8.5 TFL and 4.5 Sacks) and Greg Roberts (8 TFL’s and 4 Sacks), but outside of them, don’t have many other people that end up in the backfield. This is not Baylor’s worst defense, but certainly not their best, ranking 80th in run defense. Defensively, the people to watch out for are LB Jordan Griffin and CB Joejuan Williams. Griffin is the leading tackler for Vanderbilt with 110 on the year with 3.5 TFL’s, an interception and 2 fumble recoveries. His name will come up again a little bit later, but Joejuan Williams has elite size and intagables. Joejuan is fifth on the team in tackles and team leading 4 interceptions and 10 pass deflections.
Keys to a win:
Baylor:
Baylor is a perfect 6-0 when rushing for over 150 yards this season. Although Baylor is not good against the run, neither is Vanderbilt. They rank 88th in run defense and although the presence of Jalen Hurd will be absent, Baylor has 3 capable running backs that have ran for at least 300 yards on the season (John Lovett, JaMychal Hasty and Trestan Ebner). If Baylor is able to run the ball and create some Play Action plays that get Baylor’s speed out at receiver behind the defense, they can connect for some big time plays.
Vanderbilt:
QB Kyle Shurmur has done a pretty good job in not throwing the ball to the other team with just 6 picks on the year. Vanderbilt is in the top half of the conference in turnover differential and forces turnovers on a pretty consistent basis. Baylor has only forced 11 turnovers on the year. If he can connect with Kalija Lipscomb (886 yards and 9 touchdowns) and Jared Pinkney (698 yards and 7 touchdowns) and keep the Baylor defense off balance, Shurmur might end up having a really good game.
Final Verdict:
Jalen Hurd was a very important piece to this Baylor team and if he plays, Baylor might win this game. But with him gone and the two talented pass catchers on the outside in Lipscomb and Pinkey for the team in black and gold, they are too much for Baylor’s secondary to handle. In what is essentially a road game for the Commodores, Vanderbilt comes into Houston and gets the win. Vanderbilt 38, Baylor 28.
Image Credit: http://www.academytexasbowl.com/
