As a disclaimer before we start, I don’t recognize UCF as 2017 National Champions and don’t plan on having them anywhere near my Playoff Projections. They are a very talented team and I enjoy watching them play, but they do not belong in such a category. In fact, they have left such a distaste in my mind that I have found better teams that are more humble than them. This team would be Fresno State.
Fresno State is in the Mountain West Conference and has been regarded as a great non-power-5 team for quite some time. Yes, they aren’t going out and winning championships, but they give great seasons often. This has led me to dig a bit deeper and find out some statistics on both UCF and Fresno State. I wanted to find out who is better and where.
The Stats:
| UCF | Fresno State | |
| Points Per Game | 45.4 | 40.4 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 20.9 | 12.3 |
| # of Power-5 Opponents Played | 1 | 2 |
| Win Margin Average | 24.5 | 32.5 |
| Average Yards a Game | 548.8 | 431.3 |
| Averages Yards Allowed Per Game | 429.8 | 307.0 |
| Opponents W-L Percentage | .414 | 417 |
If you look at the stats you see that Fresno State takes five of the seven categories. In actuality, it should be four, since UCF did schedule two Power-5 opponents, but had to cancel due to Hurricane Florence. However, four out of 3 against the “national champions” is great for Fresno State. It shows they have better defense, better opponents, better win margin, and play an overall better game. If UCF fans and sports analysts were to look at this, what would they say? “We are undefeated, they’re not.” or “Well it’s not all numbers.”. And, quite actually, both of those statements are correct, but how can you take away from Fresno State, also.
When I take a step back and look at this, I see a trend that has alarmed me when dealing with college football. We see that the conferences and teams that get the most love happen to be from the Eastern side of the country. Who’s to say that a one-loss Washington State team with wins over Utah and Oregon can’t beat LSU or Notre Dame? No one. This is another reason why I believe in a 6-team system, relative to the NFL’s playoff format. This would expand for non-power 5 teams and also have good teams with one loss still being able to make it.
The NCAA is a very flawed system and it is easy to see. However, very good teams from outside the Power-5 are often over-ranked or under-ranked. The example of UCF-Fresno State is a great example. Whether you agree with me or not, the numbers speak for themselves.
Photo Credits: Evan Norris
