Luka Doncic Should Be The First Overall Pick, Not DeAndre Ayton. Here’s Why…..

As of right not the first overall pick seems to be a two way race between Luka Doncic and DeAndre Ayton with Jackson Jr. and Bagley on the outside looking in. Doncic is the first player on my big board and may not have the measurables of some of the other top choices but he will be a better NBA player who will have a better career regardless of what team he goes to. Here’s why.

Moving away from the Big Man

Let’s Take a look at the Centers in this year’s conference finals:

Warriors: Second round pick and 6’7” Draymond Green who was originally drafted as a combo forward.
Rockets: 2014 24th overall pick Clint Capela who is a 6’10” mobile defensive rim runner
Celtics: 6’10 skilled big man Al Horford who can affect the game at every aspect.
Cavaliers: 6’9” Tristan Thompson. Tttttttrash

Their backups?

• 6’8” Larry Nance Jr.
• 6’10” Aaron Banes 6’10”
• Zaza Pachulia/ 6’9” Jordan Bell
• 6’7” Mbah a Moute/ 6’10” Nene

Notice anything? None of these players are the best players on their team. Of these players, Tristan Thompson was the only lottery pick. None of these players are sniffing 7’0”. SO why do we keep taking these massive 7 footers who dominated 6’6” centers in college but can’t dribble, shoot, or run with the rest of the team in the Lottery? How else do I need to explain this? Sock Puppets?

I could pick apart Bagley and Jackson Jr. too but as Ayton is likely top 2 I will focus on him. Ayton may very well be a great player. If he averaged something in the neighborhood of 18 and 9 his rookie year that wouldn’t be totally out of the question. He very well may have a better stat line than Doncic. But Doncic gives you the best chance long term to win NBA games.

Defense:
Ayton had an amazing year at Arizona averaging 20-11. Those are some great numbers in just 33 minutes per game. He’s the biggest guy on the court and he’s probably the strongest, with that being said put him on a backup NBA point guard for 3 possessions and he’s going to look like Bambi when he was learning to walk. NBA offenses expose the weakest defender every single possession. Look at the starters again Green is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, Horford, Capela, and Thompson are all among the best in the league for big men at switching.

Elite NBA teams are moving towards switchable players who can guard more than one position rather than 7 foot shot blockers who get destroyed anytime they leave the paint. Doncic may not be the most athletic player and he doesn’t have elite lateral quickness, but he is smart and uses his size against quicker players and his speed against larger. He’s not going to win DPOY ever but he will be at worst an average NBA defender who can guard 2-4. Doncic has been guarding 25-30-year-old men who play basketball for a living since he was 16. Ayton can guard some 5’s who can’t shoot, maybe some bench Power Forwards who are hustle guys. The same reason Whiteside played like 20 MPG in the playoffs, 7 footers can’t switch at the level needed to avoid screwing up your defense. Jaren Jackson Jr. has the potential to be very good at this but is just not there offensively yet to get serious looks at #1.

Spacing:
Everyone’s like “But Ayton can shoot”. Can he? He made 12 3s all season…… in 1172 minutes. *counts on fingers* “one…. two carry the six” That’s a little more that 1 3PM per 100 minutes. Every 2 ½ games he made a 3. Does he have potential to be a good shooter, of course. His form is solid, his % was respectable in a small sample size (.343) his free throw % was above average for a 7-footer (.733). With that being said he’s never going to be the shooter that Doncic is right now. He is never going to change the game on the perimeter consistently. Per 36 minutes (comparable to Ayton’s 33 minutes) he’s stroking 2.1 3’s per game. I would be absolutely amazed if he is not hitting 3 treys per game in the NBA next season. He can be a game changer in transition, in the pick and roll, and in isolation with his crafty dribble moves.

Playmaking:
Ayton’s averaging more TOs the Assists, Doncic is being compared to Manu Ginobli and Rubio Luka in 4. Next.

Rebounding:
Doncic is a very good rebounder for a SG/SF but Ayton is obviously much better and it’s not close here. He’ll likely be floating around 10th-15th in the league his first season. Let’s take a looks at the league’s top 7 rebounders:

• Jordan: Not in the Playoffs
• Howard: Not in the Playoffs
• Towns: Lost in first round in 5
• Davis: Lost in Second round in 5
• Kanter: Not in the Playoffs
• Embiid: Lost in Second round in 6
• Drummond: Not in Playoffs

Team rebounding is unarguably one of the most important aspects of basketball, but do individual rebounding numbers lead to team success? Maybe. You tell me.

Summary
For Real Madrid, Doncic is putting up more assists than Ricky Rubio, More rebounds than Dario Saric. More points than anyone his age has ever been close too. He got a fucking triple double in 22 minutes, the first in 11 years in his league. He is 19. No NCAA team could beat Real Madrid so throw any argument about superior NCAA talent out.
Greg Oden averaged 16-10 for Ohio State and was much better at defense at Ayton’s age. Durant was the second pick. Hasheem Thabeet, Kwame Brown, Darko Milicic, These GM’s want 7’5” bodybuilding monsters who can dominate like Shaq but that rarely works out. You can say it did for Embiid and all indications are pointing towards that but he took 2 YEARS OFF and is one of the most injury prone players in the league at 24 years old.
Ayton will be a very good player but Centers don’t win in the modern NBA and its looking like they won’t for a very long time if ever. Ayton will probably average something like 20-12 a few years down the road, make some all-star teams, and make millions. But based on the past few years he cannot be the best player on a Championship team. All indications point to Doncic having that potential and that’s why he should be the first player in the 2018 NBA draft. I don’t want all stars. I want a superstar.